Roland Dürre
Sunday July 11th, 2010

Tobacco Industry Profits

:-) I am sitting in the train from Verona to Munich, now sitting in Trento. It is Sunday noon, 12.05 hours. It was a short night, because yesterday’s performance of “Carmen” in the Arena was long (and nice) and the train should have left this morning at 9.05 a.m.

:-( However, the train was (and still is) two hours late.

Consequently, I enjoy that there is time for reading the paper and for twittering and blogging.

I am reading an article about the tobacco industry in the business sector of the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung”. Reemtsma is mentioned as a prime example. Incidentally, Reemtsma is now a sub-company of “Imperial Tobacco”, which is one of the great global players in the tobacco industry, similar to A.-E. Inbev with beer. Personally, I associate Reemtsma with “Ernte” – which I used to smoke for some time when I was 14, before switching to Rothändle and Gauloise (of course, without filter).

So I read that Reemtsma had a turnover of 470 million Euros last year, with a profit of 234 million Euros. That equals a profit rate of 50 %. Even Inbev, at 30 %, has a smaller margin than that … One way or another, I know why I do not particularly like global players who think they have to dominate entire sectors with all the consumers world-wide.

In the same article, I found a citation by Warren Buffet:


You produce cigarettes for one cent and you sell them for one dollar. They are addictive and the salespersons remain true to their brand.
That is what he said 20 years ago. He is said to have changed his mind later.

But there is one problem the tobacco industry faces:

Young people smoke less.

Here is how the Sundays FAZ continues:

For the industry, the most lucrative thing that can happen is for young people to start smoking as early as possible. The really faithful smokers, those who consume tobacco until their middle and late years, started early – around the ages of 12 to 15.

If however, someone started smoking as late as 18 or even older, the danger of him becoming and continuing to be a smoker is considerably less.

There is a citation by the business lawyer Michael Adams:

Cigarettes are a lucrative business taking advantage of customers.

and

The decision of an underage person to start smoking is the most costly decision of his life. Incidentally, 80 % of them will later regret it.

These are all things the industry is perfectly aware of. Here is more:

The tobacco sector agreed on a self-restriction in advertising. They no longer use famous people for advertising, according to their own information no longer use models younger than 30 and no longer do any advertising near schools. Advertising in magazines is now forbidden, anyway.

To make up for it, the industry continues to put posters all over the place. And apart from that, the young consumers are not lost sight of, either.
Of course, I am implying that Imperial Tobacco is working quite hard at developing the smoker market among juveniles and children.
As I continue reading, I find more exciting information:

Location bans and a restriction on advertising are only insignificantly detrimental to the tobacco industry. The one thing that really hurts them is higher taxes on tobacco. Especially among children and adolescents, they caused a demand decline. In industrial countries such as the USA and Germany, higher cigarette prices by 30 % due to higher taxes reduced the sale by 12 %. The effect of more expensive cigarettes among adolescents is even more pronounced. They buy 36 % less if the prices increase by 30 %.

In my book, the protection of adolescents was one of the main reasons for voting like I did in the plebiscite. I, too, feel sympathetic towards the pub around the corner “with the landlord who is a smoker and the four regular patrons who smoke”. There is nothing nice about people who come from a difficult background and live in social loneliness perhaps losing their last social resort, just because they are no longer permitted to smoke where they used to meet and cannot or do not wish to do without the cigarette.

But my – hopefully morally responsible – balancing of values presumes that the reduction of opportunities to start tobacco consumption among adolescents, for instance in discotheques and “intellectual pubs”, is more important than the well-being of elderly smokers.

This is even exacerbated by the fact that many people went on to develop their strong dependence on hard drugs after having started out with cigarettes. That is why I consider a clear and simple law for protecting non-smokers (especially children and adolescents) important.

I am not worried about the tobacco industry finishing worse than they do now or that they might be reduced to a niche existence. This industry earned plenty of money for its shareholders for many decades. As I see it, a profit of 50 % in a hitherto rather risk-free business is amoral. Considering the specialties of the stimulant tobacco, it is even criminal.

RMD
(Translated by EG)

P.S.
I could easily imagine that many young people smoked their first cigarette on the “Wiesn”.

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4 Kommentare zu “Tobacco Industry Profits”

  1. Enno (Monday July 12th, 2010)

    Schade, im letzten Satz holst du die Keule heraus und stempelst die Marge als “unmoralisch” oder “kriminell” ab, triffst aber knapp daneben.

    Tatsächlich ist es doch aufgrund der Besonderheiten des Genussmittels Tabak erfreulich, wenn eine hohe Umsatzrendite eingefahren wird, denn das weist auf überteuerte Preise und damit künstlich reduzierte Absatzmengen hin. Und gerade das ist es doch, was Jugendliche vor dem Rauchen schützen kann.

  2. rd (Monday July 12th, 2010)

    Hallo Enno,

    ich finde, dass bei jedem Geschäft die Rendite immer in einem gesunden Verhältnis zum Risiko des Geschäftes stehen sollte. Natürlich gibt es “Ausnahmen von der Regel” :-) .

    Zum Tabak: Es könnte aber sein, dass der Markt gar nicht “künstlich verknappt” wird, sondern die Angebotsseite ganz einfach vom Suchtpotential profitiert und so einen hohen Preis und entsprechend hohe Marge durchsetzen kann.

  3. Enno (Wednesday July 14th, 2010)

    Doch doch, bei einem Preis P in negativer Abhängigkeit von der angebotenen Menge Q:
    I. P(Q)=a-b*Q (für a, b >0)
    und nicht sinkende Kosten pro zusätzlich produzierter Einheit c (was vermutet werden darf, weil wir sonst Verdrängungswettbewerb hätten), und gleich großen Produktionsmengen q=Q/n pro Wettbewerber bzw.Q=n*q, ist der Gewinn des Herstellers
    II. G=(a-b*n*q)*q-(c*q). (Preis multipliziert mit der Menge abzüglich Stückkosten mal Menge , hier einfach mal konstante Stückkosten c unterstellt.)

    Zur Gewinnmaximierung G nach q ableiten und gleich Null setzen (im Gewinnmaximum darf der Gewinn durch eine Änderung der Produktionsmenge nicht vergrößerbar sein, sonst wäre es kein Maximum).
    Dann nach q ableiten, um die optimale Outputmenge q* zu erhalten:
    III. q*=(a-c)/((n+1)*b).
    Also ist die optimale Menge aller Unternehmen gemeinsam:
    IV. Q*=n*q*=n*(a-c)/((n+1)*b).
    Die Menge Q* in I einsetzen, um den sozial optimalen Preis zu erhalten, ergibt den optimalen Preis p*:
    V. p*=a-n*((a-c)/(n+1))

    Ableiten von IV und V nach n (oder intuitiver: Überlegung, wie p* und Q* von n abhängig sind) zeigt, dass p* mit steigendem n fällt, während Q* mit steigendem n sinkt.

    Ich hoffe, das war bis hierhin noch erträglich.

    Für hohe n ist p*~=c. Für kleine n ist p*>c.
    Im Zigarettenmarkt entfielen in den 80ern 99% Marktanteil auf Morris, Brinckmann, Reemtsma, Reynolds, British-American-Tobacco. Da das Bundeskartellamt damals keine weitere Konzentration zugelassen hat, schätze ich, dass es heute nicht viel anders aussieht.
    Mit einem geringen Unternehmenszahl n=5 erreicht der Markt aber ganz automatisch verknappte Outputs Q*, überhöhte Preise p*>c und damit hohe Gewinne.

    Ich finde die Konzentrationsbewegung in der Tabakindustrie sogar sehr angenehm, weil es in der Zukunft für noch weniger Zigaretten führen wird, allein aus dem Eigeninteresse der Unternehmen.
    Die deutsche Tabak-Lobby ist übrigens daran zerbrochen, dass Morris angefangen hat, Werbeverbote zu unterstützen: Sie hatten eine so große Marktmacht erreicht, dass sie die Konkurrenz loswerden wollte, indem sie den eigenen Markt verkleinert hat.

    Die Tabakindustrie ist allerdings auch schon fast der einzige Fall, in dem ich mich über Marktmacht auf Produzentenseite freue.

  4. Chris Wood (Saturday July 17th, 2010)

    As usual, I agree with Enno, even though I am too lazy to check his economic maths. The high profit relative to production cost must be due to the difficulty that new firms have breaking into the market. Perhaps governments permit effective nationwide cartels, because they don’t want to drive down cigarette prices?
    I suppose these profits have relatively little effect on retail prices, as the tax is very high?
    I presume these profits largely go to shareholders. So the share price will be high relative to turnover. The return on shares may still be higher than usual, because many people won’t want to invest in misery. But I and others do not know where their life-insurances and pension funds invest.

    I hope any mistakes will be corrected.

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