In Google+, I am a member of several communities where problems that really move me are discussed. One of them is called Uncertainties and Unpredictables (Ungewissheit und Unvorhergesehenes). My Swiss friend Peter Addor founded this community – and he is also very diligent about nourishing it.
During the PM Camp of yesterday and the day before yesterday in Zürich, Peter initiated a great session on this topic, presenting a beautiful decision tree on risks. In doing so, he made a very clear distinction between the risks that can be planned, e.g. accepted – incidentally, the “MCA”, the Maximum Credible Accident, is one of them – and those that cannot be planned.
For me, this led to the understanding that a distinction between predictable and unpredictable (!) risks is basically only dependent on the fantasy of the beholder. And in retrospect, it mostly turns out that all risks might have been foreseen in some way or other.
The ultimate consequence of this is my idea that, actually, I should not waste energy planning against risks that might do damage to me. Instead, I should concentrate on being prepared for the imponderable. Wouldn’t it be a lot better for me if I managed to be flexible enough to cope with unpredictable risks just as well as with those that result from uncertainties?
After all, the risks I perceive in my concepts just follow the fear I likewise build up in my concepts. And, basically, they only constitute a small part of the huge number of risks I have to cope with eventually. This means that, in reality, I have to put up with many more risks than I can imagine. So why should I fear those I know, thus making my own life miserable?
Consequently, there is a conviction growing inside me that all this planning and balancing costs more than it gains me. A good piece of work will just need as much as it needs. No more and no less. And I can only do as much as I can afford to do.
Perhaps a free life is nothing other than doing without concepts of planning and balancing?
RMD
(Translated by EG)
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