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7 Kommentare zu “Unternehmertagebuch – #42 „Die Entscheidungsinsel“”

  1. Chris Wood (Donnerstag, der 11. Februar 2010)

    Yes Roland, decisions and forecasts are difficult, especially when they concern the future.
    But natural science is a clear guiding light,. (I write „natural“, for German readers who may not realise that „science“ means „Naturwissenschaft“). During the last few hundred years, the scientific culture and method have become established as the way to success. We and our culture are ourselves the result of experiments, (trial and error), in terms of evolution. Of course „success“ is a dubious concept. A collision with an asteroid could wipe out most of life on Earth. A nearby gamma-ray burst would be even more drastic. All of us surely regard a planet with life, (especially intelligent life?), as a success. But that may (surely will?) come to nothing.
    This preamble leads to questions. Roland, at what stage in your successful career did you come to the decision to make decisions intuitively? Have you been deciding that way long enough to get results that confirm the idea? Can you give us some examples of such successful decisions?
    But perhaps I am being naive (again). Perhaps this posting is just intended to confuse competitors? Or perhaps you are getting too old to think through rational decisions, and so you are trying to justify your new flippant management methods?

  2. Chris Wood (Donnerstag, der 11. Februar 2010)

    OK Roland, as you suggested, I had a look at what your other blog says. A pity that I have not found where there to add comments. Dr. Merk has been successful in multiple areas of life, but none of them seemss to me very similar to managing a software company. The most similar is his success in motivating a charitable organisation. Perhaps you should use your new method and old energy in this direction?
    On the other hand, football referee decisions are hardly relevant. The rules of football prohibit thorough collection of information. We often see on TV that this leads to decisions which are objectively wrong. Such a decision can unfairly redistribute a million dollars from one club to another. Perhaps you think this is all part of the attraction of football? According to the rules, the referee has no chance to collect information after the event. If he thinks for a while and makes a slow decision, this is hardly based on more information; it is just different processing of what is there. There is even great danger that he will use inadmissible information. One sees that professional footballers are trained to provide false information. They all try to influence refereeing decisions. They would not be trained to do this if it never worked!
    On the other (i.e. third) hand, referees are intensively trained to collect as much information as the rules allow. Top referees are selected in a processes lasting many years, for their ability to do this.

  3. rd (Donnerstag, der 11. Februar 2010)

    Auf duerre.de sind Kommentare strengstens verboten 🙂
    RMD

  4. rd (Donnerstag, der 11. Februar 2010)

    Zum ersten Kommentar: Eigentlich waren alle intuitiven Entscheidungen gut. Die extrem kopfgesteuerten hätten mich einmal fast ruiniert.
    RMD

  5. six (Donnerstag, der 11. Februar 2010)

    „Planung bedeutet, den Zufall durch Irrtum zu ersetzen.“
    Dieser Spruch wird wahlweise Winston Churchill oder Peter Ustinov oder Louis B. Mayer (der von MGM) zugeschrieben. Es ist also noch nicht einmal zu entscheiden, wie Entscheidungen gegen die Entscheidung zu entscheiden sind.

  6. Chris Wood (Sonntag, der 14. Februar 2010)

    Ich habe einen weiteren Spruch gefunden:- „Nichts kann Zufall ersetzen“.

  7. rd (Sonntag, der 14. Februar 2010)

    Habe ich gerade in Twitter „retweeted“:

    stefan_hagen Latest: RT @HeikeHolz: Je genauer Du planst, desto härter trifft Dich der Zufall –> #PMOT Retweeted by you about 1 hour ago

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