Being a (small-scale) real estate gambler, I am, also interested in projects such as S21. Of course, the reason for my interest has nothing to do with railways or democracy (although I love both). 🙂
Well, I did a calculation, trying to find out up from which sum such a project would be worth it for the common real estate gambler. And the result I got says it does not at all look good for investors:
The area of the city covered by the project is allegedly one square kilometre. According to simple arithmetic, that equals one million (1,000 multiplied by 1,000) square metres.
How much of it can I build on? I am afraid (now this is all from the perspective of the gambler) that, unfortunately, a whole lot of the new area to be acquired will have to be relinquished for infra structure (streets, bus stops, public buildings and facilities). Let us be optimistic and assume that around half of the total area, that is 500,000 square metres, can be economically utilized.
Another thing I have to take into consideration is the price per square metre. Well, I am not familiar with the prices for property in Stuttgart. But since I a) am generous and b) believe in inflation, I assume that you can count on 10,000 Euros per square metres in this area.
With these assumptions, I get a total profit from the sale of the newly acquired real estate property of 5 billion Euros (500,000 multiplied by 10,000 is 5 billion).
Well, considering the money I would have to provide up front, that would not be good enough for me. So my advice is:
Dear gamblers! Keep your hands off the project. It does not look good!
Except if someone else pays.…
Moo or baah! Sheep or cow!
RMD
(Translated by eG)
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