They might end up in the wrong hands – our weapons.
In fact, it is fairly certain.
The weapons the Western Countries gave Gaddafi are now used for destruction all over the Near East.
With the weapons from the West in Afghanistan, the Taliban shoot today.
The IS drives steel-plated US weapons.
And now we are supposed to provide the Peschmerga with weapons, and even the PKK, which, after all, is still graded a terrorist association in Germany? Because there is a slim hope that perhaps worse from the IS could be avoided by this?
Remember the sentence by Kierkegaard:
We can only understand life in retrospect, yet we have to live it the other way around.
A strategic decision always includes looking into the future, which means speculation and risk.
Speculation:
The Kurdish part of Iraq is the one in the region most similar to the West (except Israel). It is possible that an (Iraqi) Kurdistan might develop into a country with halfway Western values (pluralism, democracy, market economy). The hope is based on a lasting connection between the Peschmerga and the PKK with the expectation of stability in the new country. It is accepted that the country of Iraq will disintegrate. It will be split into three parts: Kurdistan, a Shiite state and a Sunnite state. The IS is beaten, the weapons remain in Kurdistan.
The Risk:
The worst scenario would be a total victory of the IS and as a consequence, an Iraq-Syrian caliphate. That would be the most intolerant country under the sun. All the weapons would fall into the hands of the IS.
The most acceptable loss: – after failing in the fight, the PKK will disappear in the Kurdish mountains or in Syria, taking along Western weapons.
You can think of endless alternative between those two extremes.
So far about the visible act of armament decisions.
For us (author’s note: I am talking to the members of the community “Strategic Morals”), the main focus of interest lies in what strategic morals the individual players follow in order to get the weapons deal and (in the case of the IS) in order to get a foothold in the counter movement?
The Kurdish North-Iraqi tell the West:
We are your best hope when it comes to your values.
The PKK tells the Peschmerga and the West:
In the end, the blood of the brothers will always win.
The IS tells their comrades-in-arms and their financial supporters (Qatar):
We are the only ones who can end the supremacy of the West.
The remaining Iraq (Shiites/moderate Sunnites) tell the USA:
Do you want all your sacrifices to have been for nothing?
My prognosis:
The West will provide all the weapons, Kurdistan will be founded and then dominated by the PKK.
SIX
(Translated by EG)
This article was published in the google+ community “Strategische Moral”.
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