This year, it is again going to take place: the Frankfurt IAA. Between Thursday, September, 15th and Sunday, September, 25th, 2011, the autophiles of this world will again make their pilgrimage to Frankfurt and dance around their golden calf. During the first two days, entry to the fair is restricted to professionals. From Saturday, September, 17th, the “normal” audience may pay homage to their false god.
As early as last weekend, the newspapers started their attempt at doing justice to the great event. Fat additions to the paper with pictures of futuristic-looking vehicles told the readers what to expect. In the “Frankfurter Sonntagszeitung“, however, I found a comment that sounded like a warning. Here is a short version:
Umless the automobile industry does an about face, the automobile will end exactly like it started, namely as a toy for the rich upper class.
As a reason for this estimation, you could read about resources being limited and the expectation of oil prices climbing enormously. Well, I think the scenario as cited might well become reality, especially if you take a look at the new IAA models.
To me, however, another scenario for the automobile future also sounds realistic:
A changed automobile industry produces very simple and very light-weight electric vehicles, thus enabling a future autonomous individual mobility for many people. Compared with our current combustion motor powered cars, these electric vehicles would have quite a few disadvantages: less speed, less comfort (no heating or air-conditioning), reduced cruising range, etc.
Cars like these would no longer have an emotional component. They would be reduced to being nothing other than a means of transportation. As a consequence, we would see a fast modification of traffic rules (tempo limit), a reduction of what is demanded of the ”infra-structural element street“ and a totally new relationship with your car.
In theory, however, there is even still another altenrative for continuing with the current autonomous individual mobility with its emotional component – the hydrogen technology
But I am sceptical – in Germany, we have no money to spare on this kind of thing:
- The Federal Ministry of Transport has told us that all central street building projects and unfortunately also all new construction projects of the railway that were planned for the next five years will, due to the absense of money, have to be postponed indefinitely. The S21 project is an exception, perhaps because there is some property speculation involved. Even a second S-Bahn tunnel through or a circular way around Munich cannot be realized.
- The about-face in energy politics will necesitate huge (and not yet guaranteed) investment into new power stations and, above all, electricity networks.
- Both centrally and state-wide, we do not have enough money for maintenance work on the software and IT infra-structure that is now starting to get old. According to politician’s statements, the army is supposed to take part in military missions world-wide. But nobody knows how to finance it.
- And the worst of all is: the financial situation in the educational sector, both for schools and universities, is almost hopeless.
Yes, it is true: we have no money left. That means a huge effort and investments into a hydrogen supply chain (windmills in Patagonia, ships to ferry the fluid gas to Germany, hydrogen infra-structure for all of Germany) is hardly an option.
Without hydrogen, the downfall of the combustion motor is a foregone conclusion. And I must say it does not make me sad at all. Noisy streets and airports will disappear. In the future, we will perhaps be more concerned about the increase in radiation caused by wireless communication and nuclear energy.
Gone are the days when I myself made the pilgrimage to the IAA. Today, I mostly go by bike or railway, sometimes also by bus. I seldom go anywhere by car. Only if it cannot be avoided, or perhaps once in a while I take my oldsmobile.
On the other hand, I feel more and more comfortable riding my bike. Each kilometre I ride automatically improves my physical stamina. Because of that and due to new bike technologies, I can ride ever longer stress-free distances and even enjoy it very much.
When I take the railway, I am not quite so well off. In fact, I suffer from both local and (inter)national trains getting less and less dependable. If, however, you plan ahead by, for instance, always taking the earlier S-Bahn to the Central Station, even this is something you can definitely put up with.
Now I will just relax and see what the mobile future will be.
RMD
(Translated by EG)
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