Griechenland / Alles kein Problem

8 Antworten

1. Super das trifft es genau.

2. Der Autor ist Cordt Schnibben und die Geschichte stammt aus einem Artikel des vorletzten Spiegels „Die bürgerliche Kernschmelze“. Der Artikel ist übrigens sehr empfehlenswert.

3. Holidaying in Greece, we were held up at the famous sinking bridge, when a van got stuck, blocking a long line of traffic. One wheel had run of the road, so we had to wait for a crane. My Greek being limited, I tried to explain with gestures that if 10 of the waiting men got together, we could lift the van onto the road in no time. Later, by chance, I read that extending even one hand with the fingers spread is a terrible insult in Greece. (The English use two, the Germans only one).

4. ….der Fehler bei der ach so schön einfach klingenden Geschichte ist, dass keine Zinsen für die Schulden berechnet wurden!!!

5. Yes, being serious, interest does make a difference. It seems that speculators have driven up the interest rate asked from Greece to about 14%. It is possible to do this by effectively betting on Greece defaulting in the fairly near future. This forces the banks to set very high interest rates to cover their risk. Similarly, bookmakers calculate things so that they are OK, whichever horse wins. The punters effectively bet against each other, (although the bookmakers do especially well when the result is unexpected)..
   It would be a short term disaster for Greece to go bankrupt, and a medium term disaster to accept such interest rates. Either way, it would also be nasty for the rest of Europ. So Greece had to be „rescued“. This has the nice side-effect of hurting the speculators, providing Greece is really rescued. The trouble is that the rescuers need to get Greece back into shape. One aspect is that the Greeks must work hard, pay their taxes and export, leading to a lower average standard of living for some time. I have little idea whether the main problem is with the grasping rich, with lazy workers, or just bad management. In any case, money is needed, at reasonable interest rates, for investment. Otherwise hard work will be in vain. But it is difficult for governments to persuade their voters to supply this money.
   There is another view, (Roland’s?), that limited disasters are beneficial. They stabilise in the same way that minor earthquakes may reduce the probability of a major one. Prosperity for all of Europe for the next few decades may bring a really big disaster as resources run out and the climate degrades.
   Ideally governments should carefully organise sustainable prosperity. This is made difficult by the need to gain and keep political power, whether or not by democratic means. Countries also need some military power to survive, either their own power, or that of friends.

6. Hi – das mit den Zinsen ist spannend.

   In der realen Welt scheinen ja die Zentralbanken zurzeit wohl zum Fast-Null-Zinssatz Geld an Banken zu geben, die dieses dann mit deutlichem Aufschlag weiter verleihen und so wieder ihre Schäden kompensieren.

   Wenn ich andererseits die Zinsen meiner Hypothekendarlehen (3 – 4 %) anschaue und dann die Geldentwertung in meinem persönlichen Konsumbereich schenke, habe ich real auch nur NULL-Zins-Kredite.

7. There is another reason why the story does not fit. The debts are not evenly distributed, (although the German national debt per head is similar to that of Greece). I believe that China is hugely in plus, whereas USA has a „huge“ debt.
   But I assume that the USA debt is peanuts compared with the total assets of USA.
   I rarely see such figures, but I assume that most of the assets of USA belong to USA citizens. I recently read that the savings of Germans add up to 5 billion €, (5 million million, this is a European billion). This is about 60 thousand € per head. This includes life insurances, state papers, funds, shares, etc. But it does not include property such as houses, land, small firms, etc. (unless owned by companies that are AGs). No doubt there are further German assets, such as the roads.

   I guess that the total assets of Germany add up to about 10 billion, (120 thousand per head). This fits fairly well with the observation that the average person has a roof over their head, a place to work or learn, a piece of road, etc. even if somebody else owns these.
   The German national debt (4000 € per head?) is only a small fraction of this.
   I suspect that the Greek assets per head are significantly less (perhaps half?). For instance, they are short of fertile land.
   Of course the values of all the assets are subject to circumstance. Fertile land is suddenly very valuable when food shortages start. House prices drop if there are few children and prosperity drops. Arid Greek land will become more valuable, if they use it to collect solar energy. Almost everything is worth much less in a failed country.

   In every country, assets per head are even less evenly distributed than incomes. One reason is that old people have more than the young, having had time to save. The balance is corrected to some extent by democracy, where those without assets can vote. The poor have some power beyond their meagre assets also in other countries, for instance in N. Africa.

   I welcome correction by any better economist. I am no expert.

8. Yes, Roland, earlier it was possible for normal people to make a few real percent by intelligent investment. Now there are too many professionals skimming off the cream. Insider dealing is also ubiquitous.